Beyond Kyoto — A New Global Climate Certificate System: by Prof. Dr. Lutz Wicke (auth.)

By Prof. Dr. Lutz Wicke (auth.)

This booklet exhibits how humankind can ‘prevent risky interference with the c- mate approach’ with out risky interference with the worldwide economy. within the underlying reports on behalf of the Ministry of atmosphere and delivery of i the German federal kingdom of Baden-Württemberg, the implications were elaborated via medical evaluate of alternative weather safeguard structures and in depth developmental paintings on an effective weather security procedure. the implications may be offered in 9 chapters in line with the next 9 uncomplicated R&D steps: 1. Quantifying the ‘ultimate weather goal’ of the area neighborhood so as ‘to hinder risky interference with the weather system,’ therefore attaining weather sustainability; 2. improvement of a accomplished usual procedure for comparing the chance of luck for various weather safeguard platforms; three. according to this clinical usual procedure, review of the present Kyoto process and of crucial proposals for ‘incremental regime evolution’ of the Kyoto procedure. regrettably, it has to be famous that those platforms are incapable of achi- ing weather sustainability; four. comparing 3 proposals for ‘structural regime swap’ of the Kyoto method. Following this goal review approach and numeric comparability of the diff- ent proposals, five. Description of the 8 uncomplicated parts of GCCS and its in-depth ‘critical asse- ment;’ 6.

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The ECOFYS sub-criterion of ‘environmental effectiveness’ must hence – carefully speaking – be questioned as a criterion which is based on a rather ‘technocratic and mechanistic’ definition with a dominant environment reference. (This is why in Chap. ) In contrast to this, the climate sustainability criterion – including its sub-criteria – explained earlier in this study focuses on whether the system in question and its major climate-relevant structure element are ‘designed’ in such a manner that the emission requirements needed to stabilize CO2 at a level of 550 ppm appear to be feasible at least by the year 2100.

Global emission levels would then be later lowered in defined steps up to the year 2010 in order to approach the level to be achieved by the year 2100 according to the 550 ppm stabilization curve (with further lowering being possible during subsequent centuries in line with the development of the state of the art). In this way, the initial exceeding of the stabilization path could be compensated for by lower-than-specified emissions in subsequent years, with further reductions corresponding to the 550 ppm stabilization curve then ensuring that the EU’s stabilization target is achieved on a permanent basis.

21 Ibidem, p. 153. D Criterion for Climate Sustainability: Global Emission Path for Implementing the EU’s CO2 Stabilization Target of 550 ppm Although the IPCC does not give any recommendations which it considers to be ‘political’, for example, with regard to climate protection targets, it nevertheless points out how carbon dioxide emissions would have to develop in the 21st century in order to keep CO2 concentration below the 550 ppm or other marks22. An IPCC curve of CO2 emissions from the year 2000 on23, for example, shows how many billions of tonnes would be permissible annually world-wide over the time in order to limit the carbon dioxide concentration level in accordance with the EU target (including the effect of this stabilization target on temperature).

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