By Pavel Serguéiévitch Alexandrov, Paul S. Alexandroff
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DO aim low. As in any 12-step program, the first step is to realize that we are powerless over the market. However smart we are, we cannot control how our investments will perform, no matter how much we study and prepare. There are always larger forces at work. This means we should aim low. The lower our aspirations, the more likely it is that we will achieve them. It is seldom a good idea to make any “bold” investment decisions. The market exists to teach us bonecrunching lessons in humility. You can lose real money there.
This will help you roughly size up what you might expect in the way of investment returns over the long run, as well as how big a risk you are taking along the way to get them. Third, you can control the extent to which your holdings are diversified. You need to own asset classes whose performance does not correlate with each other—especially during a market panic, when all correlations tend to converge. We all thought that the standard pie chart portfolio we owned was plenty diversified, until 2008 taught us differently.
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