Modeling Uncertainty in the Earth Sciences by Professor Jef Caers

By Professor Jef Caers

Modeling Uncertainty within the Earth Sciences highlights a number of the concerns, options and sensible modeling instruments on hand for modeling the uncertainty of advanced Earth platforms and the influence that it has on useful events. the purpose of the publication is to supply an introductory evaluation which covers a large variety of tried-and-tested instruments. Descriptions of recommendations, philosophies, demanding situations, methodologies and workflows supply the reader an knowing of easy methods to make judgements below uncertainty for Earth technological know-how problems.The publication covers key matters corresponding to: Spatial and time element; huge complexity and dimensionality; computation energy; charges of 'engineering' the Earth; uncertainty within the modeling and choice procedure. concentrating on trustworthy and useful equipment this ebook presents a useful primer for the complicated zone of determination making with uncertainty within the Earth Sciences.

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Sample text

In this chapter, important concepts are discussed, even some philosophical approaches to “uncertainty” that can be treated purely scientific, but because of its many applications has also a societal impact. The discussion in this chapter is quite general and may apply to many fields; the chapter is concluded by applying these concepts to some real cases to illustrate more concretely what they mean. What is uncertainty? ” Quantifying uncertainty is not trivial. One may be tempted to state that quantifying what we don’t know is the opposite of quantifying what we know.

Laws of physical and dynamic processes and make such modeling dependent on the purpose for which they are used. 2 provides an overview that will be used throughout this book. Each of the following chapters treats various aspects displayed in this figure; therefore, each chapter will start by recalling this figure with the treated topics highlighted. This figure by no means represents the only view on modeling uncertainty, but it can be used to structure and solve many problems. 3. 2 Overview of the various components of modeling uncertainty in the Earth Sciences.

4). 4 A Venn diagram displaying sample space and two events that are related. Given that we know that E occurs, we can only be in circle E. P(E) = surface circle E entire box S Given that F occurs, we can only be in circle F. 4 Bayes’ Rule Bayes’ rule or equation is one of the key concepts in probability theory and of paramount importance for the Earth Sciences. For example, the probability of finding a diamond in a region is an unconditional probability. , rock is kimberlitic, garnets have been found), the probability of an event will “change” either increasing or decreasing, that is, we are “learning” from the data.

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