The Chicago Bears are on summer break until training camp begins in July. Given the time we have between now and then, I feel as if we have some time to take some deep breaths and allow ourselves opportunities to take some time to see what is coming on the horizon.
Today, first look at Bears playoff odds.
Matt Eberflus has won 10 games in two seasons as head coach. Admittedly, these have been some rough times to be a Bears fan. However, just because things have been bad doesn’t mean they’ll stay bad forever. With that being said, two analytics-based projections for the 2024 season paint with an optimistic brush.
Seeing ESPN’s odds should give Bears fans hope
ESPN’s Football Power Index seeks to measure a teams projected results based on 10,000 simulations and a whole bunch of different factors —expected points added per play, predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, and more. It isn’t an opinion-based set of power rankings. Instead, the prediction model is rooted in math. And when it comes to the 2024 Chicago Bears, the numbers look better than they have in recent years
Let us take a look into ESPN’s crystal ball to see what the future holds, via FPI (with 2023 projections in parenthesis for some additional perspective on the matter):
The Chicago Bears are incrementally better in 2024 than they were last year. At least, that is how I’m choosing to read the data above while comparing numbers from this time last year. And reading the data this way has me feeling like this…
… and I imagine I’m not alone.
CALEB WILLIAMS ON THE BEARS FUTURE: “We’re gonna be pretty damn good.”
On the one hand, I’m cautious to put a ton of stock in preseason projections this time of year. It just seems early to be in that kind of mindset. But on the other hand, ESPN’s FPI model has been accurate in the past when it comes to forecasting the Bears. In May 2022, the FPI calculations spit out a projection that Chicago would be the NFL’s worst team. I pushed back on it at the time, but that prophecy turned out to be accurate. The 2022 Bears finished with the league’s worst record — and it landed them the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
It stunk to be in the trenches for all that losing. But to get to the other side has felt great.
A year later, the model had the Bears pegged for 7 wins. After the dust settled on the 2023 season, Chicago’s football team had 7 wins to show for its efforts. Given that bit of information, I am willing to put more stock into the Bears projections from ESPN than I might otherwise give to different prediction models.
Soon, the time will come for Chicago’s football team to make an ascent up the standings. And for what it’s worth, I’m feeling optimistic based on this relatively rosy forecast for the Bears from ESPN in 2024.
Pro Football Focus gives the Bears slightly better odds to make the postseason
Betting market-implied power rankings and strength of schedule help color the forecast from Pro Football Focus. It is a different way of looking at things. And while it might not be the preferred way for some, I think there is some value in looking at the forecast through this scope.
This is what PFF’s data spits out for the Bears’ odds in 2024:
Technically, the PFF has a (slightly) more optimistic appraisal of the situation. Not by much, mind you. A few percentage points here and there, but not much else. Even still … this has me feeling better about the Bears in 2024 than I did in 2023. And at this stage of the offseason, I’ll gladly take that feeling over the alternative.
I mean, would you rather be sitting where the Carolina Panthers are with a 0.47% chance of winning the Super Bowl and a projected fast-track to the No. 1 pick in a 2025 NFL Draft that doesn’t have a quarterback prospect of Caleb Williams’ caliber? I didn’t think so.
To be clear, I’m not presenting this data as a be-all and end-all. Instead, I just want to share some numbers that might present some useful perspective as we head into the 2024 NFL season. There is a lot to be optimistic about when it comes to the Chicago Bears. And the numbers back it up.
